Citi Cuts Lucid Price Target to $14: Q1 Miss, Pulled Guidance Test the Saudi-Backed EV Maker

David MoadelFri, May 15, 2026 at 3:58 PM UTC

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Courtesy of Lucid GroupQuick Read -

Lucid Group (LCID) missed Q1 2026 with $282M in revenue and a $1B net loss, prompting Citi to cut its price target to $14 from $17 while maintaining a Buy rating as analyst Michael Ward bets on 2027 production catalysts at the Saudi plant.

Lucid suspended its 2026 guidance after withdrawing its outlook, but Citi argues that the Saudi-backed EV maker’s medium-term thesis survives if production ramps at the new Saudi facility and capital spending declines in 2027 to reshape unit economics.

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Citi just trimmed its price target on Lucid Group (NASDAQ:LCID) to $14 from $17, while keeping a Buy rating. Analyst Michael Ward cited the company's Q1 2026 miss and the withdrawal of its 2026 outlook, but argued the medium-term thesis remains intact.

For long-term investors, the price target cut reads as a sobering near-term recalibration while the Saudi-backed EV story remains intact. The question now is whether execution catches up to ambition before liquidity tightens.

Ticker

Company

Firm

Action

Old Rating

New Rating

Old Target

New Target

Lucid Group

Citi

Price target cut

Buy

Buy

$17

$14

The Analyst's Case

Ward's note acknowledges a rough quarter while leaning on 2027 catalysts. Citi sees inflection points as production starts at the new Saudi plant and capital spending declines, two levers that could reshape Lucid's unit economics.

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Lucid's Q1 2026 revenue came in at $282 million on a net loss of roughly $1 billion. CFO Taoufiq Boussaid stated, "With Silvio now on board and conducting his review of the business, we are suspending our prior guidance and we will provide a full outlook at our Q2 earnings call."

Company Snapshot

Lucid produces the Lucid Air and Lucid Gravity, backed by Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund. Q1 production rose to 5,500 vehicles, but deliveries came in at 3,093 after a temporary Gravity stop-sale tied to a supplier quality issue.

Lucid's gross margin sank to negative 110%. Pro forma liquidity stood at $4.7 billion, with funding runway into the second half of 2027.

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Why the Move Matters Now

Lucid stock has been punished. Shares trade near $6, down 43% year to date (YTD) and 78% over the past year. Earlier in May, Morgan Stanley cut its target to $5 from $10 with an Underweight rating, framing the same Q1 results far more bearishly.

The Citi call is the moderate middle ground. Ward isn't dismissing the operational misstep, yet the firm continues to underwrite Lucid's Saudi production plant scheduled to start in 2027 as a structural catalyst that could lower per-unit costs.

For context, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) printed Q1 2026 revenue of $22.39 billion at a 21% auto gross margin, and Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) beat estimates with $1.38 billion in revenue. Lucid is operating at a fraction of that scale.

What It Means for Your Portfolio

Lucid stock remains a high-risk, high-conviction bet. The bull case leans on the Saudi plant ramp-up. The bear case is straightforward: deeply negative margins, a suspended outlook, and a double-digit short interest signaling skepticism.

Prudent LCID investors should weigh Citi's measured Buy against Morgan Stanley's Underweight stance and recognize that both views can be partially correct. Position sizing matters here, and any exposure could be sized to survive continued volatility through 2026.

Keep an eye on the Q2 2026 earnings call, when incoming Lucid Group CEO Silvio Napoli is expected to reframe the strategic plan and reissue guidance. That's the next real test of whether the Saudi-backed EV maker can turn execution risk into the 2027 inflection Citi is underwriting.

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